E&OE TRANSCRIPT
RADIO INTERVIEW
2GB WITH LUKE GRANT
WEDNESDAY, 6 MAY 2020
SUBJECTS: The impact of Coronavirus on the economy and jobs; JobKeeper; Delayed budget; Labor’s constructive approach; Polls and politics; COVIDSafe app; Migration.
LUKE GRANT, 2GB: I thought we'd have a chat to Jim Chalmers. I'm delighted to say he's on the line. Hope you're well.
JIM CHALMERS, SHADOW TREASURER: Thanks for having me on your show, Luke.
GRANT: It's a pleasure. Jim, just on Josh Frydenberg's contribution at the National Press Club, anything in that that particularly surprised you from what you've been picking up from the commentary issued by the Government up to this point?
CHALMERS: Not a lot of surprises but some pretty confronting insights out of the Commonwealth Treasury. They've released some numbers which really go to the seriousness of the economic carnage that we're anticipating over the next couple of months at least. You're right to say that a disruption like this to the economy generally has a pretty long tail and a pretty long shadow. As much as we would all like it to be different I think we're in for a pretty bleak period in the economy. That's what my opposite number was on about today at the National Press Club.
There were a couple of things I would have liked to have heard which I didn't hear. We wanted to hear more about why so many workers are being excluded from these JobKeeper payments, which is a big problem. Secondly we want to know that there's a plan for jobs in the economy after some of these payments start to be withdrawn towards the end of the year. The Treasurer needs to pick up an opportunity to give people a bit of an insight into those two things.
GRANT: Jim, should there have been a budget? I mean, we're in the middle of this so I'm persuaded by the argument that coming up with a budget now, things change so quickly, that it would likely be different in three or four months' time. But I think I've heard you and Albo both say that it might have been appropriate to make a more full statement on the state of affairs. Is that what we needed to hear more of today, for example?
CHALMERS: Yeah, that's about the size of it Luke. The Budget was scheduled for next Tuesday and when the Government came out and said, look we're going to struggle to get one together by then, we said, that sounds fair enough but why don't you use the opportunity that would have been provided next week to release a full set of numbers on what you expect to happen in the economy and what do you expect to happen in the budget? Not a full budget, but some numbers so that Australian businesses and Australian workers know what the Government's expecting so that people can make decisions based on a robust set of figures. Unfortunately that doesn't look like it's going to be happening next week which is a bit of a shame because I think people would have appreciated a bit of an insight into what we're dealing with here.
GRANT: How do you stop everyone falling through a crack? You mentioned JobKeeper. I had an email from a listener who had set themselves up for retirement. They have an investment property, they were prepared to live on the income from that. Three tenants have subsequently had restaurants close down, so there's no income there, and the other two want to talk about a reduction in what they can afford. You just wonder, these are people that have set themselves up for retirement and done the right thing, but through no fault of their own they end up probably having to go to Centrelink at some point, given that their assets aren't too high. I guess that's a matter for them and their accountant, but how do you stop everyone falling through the cracks? Can you actually do that?
CHALMERS: A couple of things about that. Firstly, you're right to say that when somebody loses their job it impacts harshly on that person, but it also cascades through the economy. It makes it harder to pay rent to landlords, it makes it harder to pay all the various bills that people rely on. It cascades through the economy and is a real compounding problem.
We think JobKeeper was a really good idea. We called for it. The Government initially said they weren't red-hot on it but we welcomed it when they had a change of heart. That's a good thing. But the problem is that it's a really good idea that's being badly implemented. The reason it's being badly implemented is that there are heaps of workers who are excluded from it and it doesn't make sense to us why you wouldn't include them. I know that in your listeners there'd be a lot of shift workers in the food and accommodation industry, a lot of arts and entertainment workers, a lot of shift workers, and a lot of casuals. Unfortunately, those are the kinds of workers who have been largely excluded from the scheme. So when the Government says, look, we want to keep as many people attached to their employer as possible with these wage subsidies, we think yes, that's exactly the right thing that we should be doing. But then it doesn't make sense to say that to some workers and not for others, in our view, deserving workers. If I was the Treasurer I would do that a bit differently. I'd try and get the scheme to include some of those casual workers who might be listening to your show tonight.
GRANT: Yeah, fair enough. I think also, just a personal view from what I've observed Jim, to think that at the end of this all the square pegs will go back to where they were and those jobs will be resumed, am I right in saying there'll be entrepreneurs who will be a little bit stifled and won’t want to jump in as hard as they once might have? There might be people who've been away from their business from five or six months and thought to themselves, you know what, I don't need that daily stress anymore. So things will look, I think, a lot different. Is that a fair evaluation? Do you believe that?
CHALMERS: I think so. I think people will be a lot more cautious, whether it's investors, people who run small businesses, but also at the household level. Some people if they get through this crisis will think, geez we dodged the bullet there and we probably need a bit more of a buffer in our savings, so people might be a bit more reluctant to spend. There will be all kinds of things where people change their behaviour. The Reserve Bank Governor has talked about this at length in a pretty accurate way. That's why we're a bit sceptical when the Prime Minister says things will snap back to normal. I don't think they'll snap back to where they were and for that reason we have to be really careful about how we withdraw some of the support from the economy towards the end of the year.
GRANT: Interesting point, because if what you say is correct, I think it is, is there not the chance then for further stimulus, even when we get beyond this lockdown period, maybe toward the end of this year, early next year? Isn't there an argument given what you've just said that we might have to revisit? So to cut it off because we've set this date of September, whatever the Prime Minister said, it might not end that way?
CHALMERS: Yeah, correct. It might be patchy. Some industries might come back pretty strongly, others might come back a bit more slowly. Some kinds of workers will find themselves on the outer longer than others. We've got to be a bit flexible and we have to be smart about it. We've also got to work out what other things might need to be done. The one that really stands out for me, which Albo and Jason Clare from down your way have been talking about, is we've going to a real problem in the construction sector. About three months from now it's going to really fall away as you probably appreciate. If there's not the demand there, and we're talking about hundreds of thousands of tradies who might be out of work, we need to think about things like social housing. We need to think about those sorts of things to create some jobs until the private sector is ready to take over. So ideally, I hope they're doing this, I genuinely hope they are, I hope the Government's putting some thought into those kinds of things so that if the economy is not recovering as fast as the Prime Minister has lead us to believe that there's a there's a plan B that they can kick in.
GRANT: Difficult job for you and for the leadership, the other leaders of the ALP. I mean, we saw figures yesterday that had, I think in the Essential poll, the Prime Minister was just trailing the Easter Bunny and a couple of centimetres in front of Santa Claus. Of course, all the attention is focused on Federal and State leaders. I don't think anyone couldn't look at what the Opposition's done here and say that you've been anything other than cooperative with the Government, or acted with the nation's best interests at heart. But Jim in the fair dinkum department, how do you get people to notice you?
CHALMERS: First of all I'm pleased that you recognised that we are trying to be as constructive, supportive and responsible as we can. That's not always the best political strategy, but it's the best strategy for the economy. The people who are frankly petrified about how this plays out are relying on us to do the right and responsible thing. I am genuinely grateful that you mentioned that because that's been our intention. Albo talks about looking for outcomes, not arguments and I think there really is something in that, particularly when things are difficult. Obviously, that makes the politics of things a bit harder for us, but so be it. We'll worry about the politics later. This is a challenge of such immense magnitude in the economy, particularly in the labour market. Let's do the right thing by real people in the real economy and real communities. If we do the right thing there, we'll worry about the politics some other time.
GRANT: Well said. A couple of quick ones. Have you downloaded the COVIDSafe app and have you survived with that they're on your phone, you haven't had any strange visits or anything?
CHALMERS: I have downloaded it. I downloaded it straight away. I do understand that some people have concerns about it. But from my point of view, if it helps us track down where there might be outbreaks, then that's something that we should be up for. These are unusual times, and if that means unusual things and so be it. I do understand some people are not delighted with the prospect, but I think the more people that download it the better.
GRANT: Yeah, I'm with you. We ask health professionals to go into rooms where they might end up picking up a pretty significant disease. If all we're going to do is download an app and feel a bit uncomfortable for a while, I'm with you. I think you just do it.
I'm intrigued by the argument, the ongoing argument about immigration. I'm not so much a big Australia believer. I think we could do a lot better developing productivity, developing outcomes with what we've got here. So I'm quite persuaded by Kristina Keneally’s argument. But I know there's a contrary view or somewhat of a contrary view within Labor. Where do you fall on that issue Jim?
CHALMERS: I think it's a conversation worth having. Because of the international borders being largely closed, the flow of migrants for the time being has largely stopped. That seems to me to be a good opportunity to think about what the migration program looks like when it restarts. We had an issue before this crisis; we had something like two million Australians unemployed or underemployed and we need to get to the bottom of why we aren't doing a better job of training them for some of these skill shortages in particular. We’ve got to get the mix right between permanent and temporary migrants, but we've also got to have a nice balanced conversation about it and recognise that overwhelmingly migrations been really good for our economy and our society. We've got to keep making the right decisions about the best way forward. I think that's just what KK was talking about and that makes sense.
GRANT: Hang on KK, Albo - what did I call you?
CHALMERS: (Laughs) I don't have a nickname for you.
GRANT: You haven't got one? This is terrible. You're the Shadow Treasurer for goodness sake. You’ve gotta have something! Great to talk to you Jim and can I just say I know I mentioned that before about working constructively, how refreshing it is to talk to a politician who doesn't every second paragraph just stick the boot into the other mob, very refreshing. I talk to a lot of politicians including your opposite number and they make an art form of putting the boot in as often as they can and you don't seem to do that. I think it's refreshing. Great credit to you and I've enjoyed talking to you. Thank you, Jim.
CHALMERS: I've enjoyed it too Luke. Thanks and all the best to your listeners.
ENDS
