JIM CHALMERS MP
SHADOW TREASURER
MEMBER FOR RANKIN
E&OE TRANSCRIPT
TELEVISION INTERVIEW
ABC AFTERNOON BRIEFING
WEDNESDAY, 1 SEPTEMBER 2021
SUBJECTS: National Accounts; Australia’s economy slowing last quarter and shrinking this quarter because of Scott Morrison’s incompetence; National reopening plan; Vaccinations.
PATRCIIA KARVELAS, HOST: Jim Chalmers, welcome.
JIM CHALMERS, SHADOW TREASURER: Thanks, Patricia.
KARVELAS: Australia has avoided a technical recession for now. Does that demonstrate that the economy continues to be resilient?
CHALMERS: Well, a few things about that, Patricia. The economy was slowing in the data that we received today but we know that the economy is actually shrinking in the subsequent quarter. We got the numbers today for the June quarter, the economy was slowing, and then we know it's now shrinking in the September quarter. So that's an important bit of perspective. Also, the economy is growing more slowly than the US, the UK, and the OECD average. So that's another important piece of perspective. But I think the most important thing is that for Australians who are doing it especially tough, particularly but not just in locked down communities, I think the digits and the decimal places on these quarterly numbers are not the most important thing. I think for a lot of Australians it already feels like they're in recession and they're the people we should focus on.
KARVELAS: Okay, do you expect spending in the last quarter will be depressed because we're emerging with COVID cases now that our two biggest states have accepted we're not going to get to COVID zero, that this is new territory for us?
CHALMERS: It is new territory. That's been a feature all along. There's been some sense of uncertainty and unpredictability. But one of the things that we have been able to be certain of, one of the things that's been entirely predictable, is that the economic weakness in our economy is a direct consequence of the Government's inability to get the vaccine rollout right and to some extent as well to their failure to do purpose-built quarantine and some of the other things that have been missing. And so when you think about the slowing economy, and the shrinking economy in the September quarter, this is the price that people are paying for the mistakes made by Scott Morrison and his Government when it comes to vaccines in quarantine. That's been the predictable bit. Until we fix that, we're going to continue to have lockdowns. And if we continue to have lockdowns, we'll continue to have the social dislocation but also the economic carnage that we've seen last year and this year.
KARVELAS: Okay, but on lockdowns, even according to the Doherty modelling, we could continue to see them even when we've got that 70% vaccination rate or even higher. That's not on the Federal Government is it, even if it gets those vaccination rates to that rate. That the kind of reality of living with COVID?
CHALMERS: It is on the Federal Government that our capacity to reopen, our capacity to hit those vaccination targets, our capacity to deal with quarantine, all of these sorts of issues that have emerged which are holding the economic recovery back, holding down and holding back our local communities as well, can be sheeted home to those key failures on vaccines and quarantine. They are federal government responsibilities. All of us, whether you're in federal parliament, the state parliaments, the broader Australian community, nobody wants these lockdowns to go for any longer than is necessary. Everybody wants Australia to open up when it's safe to do so, and to open up with confidence about the future. But in order to do that the Prime Minister needs to take responsibility for those failures. He needs to stop trying to divide the Australian community, calling Queenslanders and West Australians cave dwellers, and picking fights over the national plan. We want to see the national plan implemented. That means the Prime Minister needs to spend more time trying to implement it competently, turning around some of the mistakes he's made to here, and less time trying to pick fights. That would be better for everyone.
KARVELAS: Okay, do you expect Queensland and WA for instance to open their borders when they hit that 70% double dose vaccination rate, even if there are thousands of cases in New South Wales or hundreds in Victoria?
CHALMERS: Well, it remains to be seen. I don't speak for Mark McGowan or Annastacia Palaszczuk. Everybody signed up.
KARVELAS: But in terms of the economic imperative. Do you think that when they get to those high vaccination rates they should open up with the other states that have high cases of COVID?
CHALMERS: I think they'll need to take into account all of data, all of the numbers. The Doherty modelling talks about cases, and it talks about contact tracing, and it talks about all of these other factors as well. The most important thing is vaccination rates. But the national plan allows for all kinds of different scenarios. I'm not going to try and predict what the State Premiers will do. They've got their own microphones and they can make their own position clear. We support the national plan. We want Australia to open up with confidence. We want Australia to open up when it's safe for that to happen. And that means getting on top of these big outbreaks at the moment, particularly in Sydney but also in your neck of the woods in Melbourne. It means getting those vaccination rates up. It means building purpose-built quarantine. It beggars belief that we are so far into this crisis, with all of this social and economic damage that it's doing, we still don't have what we need in terms of vaccination rates and purpose-built quarantine. That's our focus because those are the most important factors which determine all of these other questions.
KARVELAS: Yeah, okay. So there are many factors. You're right, but I feel like you're hedging a bit here. I'm going to just ask again, very politely. High vaccination rates, clearly Victoria today, and New South Wales, tell us they don't think they can get to COVID zero. So they're trying to suppress and live with the virus, vaccinate their way out of it. Does that mean, based on this national plan you say your support, you think that the state borders should be dismantled when those high rates of vaccination are achieved? In the interests of the economy?
CHALMERS: I'm not trying to be. I'm not trying to avoid the question. I think the national plan should be adhered to. And the national plan allows for...
KARVELAS: Which means opening the borders? I’m just trying to get a view on that?
CHALMERS: Yeah. Ideally, Australia would open up when we've got the vaccination rates up, when it's safe to do so, when it's consistent with the health advice. The point that I keep returning to, that's what I want to see, I've made no question of that, neither has our team. We want to see Australia open up consistent with the national plan.
KARVELAS: Including Queensland opening up its border to New South Wales, for instance, when it reaches 70% of vaccination?
CHALMERS: The point I'm making Patricia, which is consistent with the National Plan, consistent with the health advice, is that there a whole bunch of other assumptions in there beyond vaccination rates, which are important as well. And that's why I don't want to pre-empt decisions taken by Premiers consistent with the national plan. We don't know what cases will look like. We don't know what the contact tracing regime will look like. We don't know where the other states will be at. Yes, we want to adhere to those vaccination targets, we want Australia to open up properly, we want to do it safely and with confidence, in the interests of our society most of all but also our economy. And in order to do that we need to do it consistent with the national plan. Annastacia Palaszczuk, Mark McGowan, all of the other Premiers of either political persuasion can make their own commentary on what they intend to do. We support the national plan. We've said that consistently. And the most important part of the national plan is fixing the mess that the Prime Minister has made of vaccines. Australians are paying a price for his mistakes. We saw that in the national accounts today and we'll see it more prominently in the National Accounts for September, which we'll get in December.
KARVELAS: Okay, so on that national plan. You’re the Shadow Treasurer. In terms of the economic ramifications, the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has pointed to tourism for instance and how much the Queensland economy relies on tourism and the fact that that domestic hard-border is pretty difficult in terms of those businesses. Do you agree? Would you like to see those businesses be able to see visitors from Melbourne and Sydney by Christmas?
CHALMERS: Look, it's so obvious that the Queensland tourism industry does it tough when borders are closed, that even the Treasurer has cottoned on to that. That's self-evident for the tourism industry. And I'm about to start another three day trip through regional Queensland, leaving as soon as we're finished our conversation here in fact, speaking with the tourism industry, and also agriculture, also heavy industry, about the implications of these lockdowns and implications for local economies. I think it's self-evident that tourism struggles when the borders are closed, we don't want the borders closed unnecessarily. The reason the borders are closed is because we're having these outbreaks. The reason we're having these outbreaks and these lockdowns is because the Prime Minister didn't do his job on vaccines and quarantine. So let's focus on the real problem here, which is the Prime Minister's failures. Let's fix that up. We've made some constructive suggestions around vaccine incentives and the like, trying to be helpful. Because there are industries and parts of Australia doing it especially tough as a consequence of the Prime Minister's incompetence.
KARVELAS: Okay. Do you think the economy will need more stimulus. As we near the end of the year, obviously, you know, the two lockdowns, we’re seeing a third in the ACT to be fair. But in the two big states, it's going to be pretty difficult for business. Are you going to be calling for more stimulus in the economy?
CHALMERS: I think the economy needs more stimulus right now. We've made that clear. That's one of the reasons why they called for that vaccination incentive. It wouldn't just be a shot in the arm for the vaccine program, but also shot in the arm for the economy. We've made no secret of that - that the economy, which is going through a really difficult period right now, needs help right now. One of the reasons why it is so dumb that the Government cut JobKeeper prematurely is because we now know that when they cut it, it was followed by a quite soft, slowing economy. And now the economy is contracting again. And so I think it's self-evident that the economy needs more help. There's a lot of businesses missing out on support who deserve it. A lot of workers, a lot of employers, around Australia doing it especially tough. It's quite remarkable that when even the Treasurer concedes that the economy's bleeding hundreds of millions of dollars a day and billions of dollars a week, he's not doing anything extra to deal with that problem. It shouldn't be beyond this Government to recognise that many small businesses and working families are in this position because of the Federal Government's failures. The least they could do is to provide the kind of support to get people through and stimulate the economy at the same time.
KARVELAS: Just finally, a truck driver from New South Wales has tested positive for COVID-19 in Queensland this afternoon. The person was infectious in the community for a day a week ago. Firstly, how concerning is this? And is this another example that the current COVID regulations for truck drivers aren't working?
CHALMERS: Look, I haven't seen that development, Patricia. I'm hearing about it for the first time. Clearly, we need robust arrangements for people crossing borders. I think one of the things we need to be really conscious of though is that drivers, and truckies in particular, have quite literally kept the wheels of the economy turning, getting key goods around Australia. And so we shouldn't be too hard on them. But we need to make sure that arrangements are safe and that they're robust. If there are suggestions out there about how to do that more effectively, consistent with the health advice, then we should listen.
KARVELAS: Jim Chalmers, thanks for joining me.
CHALMERS: Thank you, Patricia.
ENDS
