E&OE TRANSCRIPT
TELEVISION INTERVIEW
ABC AFTERNOON BRIEFING
WEDNESDAY, 15 APRIL 2020
 
SUBJECTS: IMF World Economic Outlook; Impact of Coronavirus on the Australian economy; JobKeeper; Unemployment; Government’s media package; World Health Organisation funding and reform; Home-schooling and mixed messages on return to school. 
 
PATRICIA KARVELAS, ABC AFTERNOON BRIEFING: Labor’s Treasury spokesman, Jim Chalmers, joins me this afternoon. Jim, welcome.  
 
JIM CHALMERS, SHADOW TREASURER: Hi Patricia.
 
KARVELAS: Josh Frydenberg has played down the IMF's outlook for the Australian economy, saying that the IMF economists finalised their forecasts before the announcement of the Government's $130 billion JobKeeper package and also crucially, before Australia bent the curve of new Coronavirus cases. Do you think that's fair? Well, Jim Chalmers has clearly frozen there. This is what happens when you rely on these Skype lines which we're doing during this new era of physical distancing. I think we've got you back, Jim Chalmers. I'll restate the question. Essentially, the Treasurer is suggesting that what hasn't been taken into account by the IMF economists is the changes we've seen; the JobKeeper package and also bending the curve.
 
CHALMERS: It's not what the report itself says, Patricia. The report makes it really clear that the IMF board took into account developments all the way up to their meeting on 7 April, which was around a week after the JobKeeper package was announced so I'm not sure why Josh Frydenberg made that claim earlier-on today. Nor should he be dismissing or playing down what is a really confronting set of forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. What they said was they expect the Australian downturn to be deeper than in the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, Korea and other countries. They expect average unemployment not to peak until next year, sometime down the track. They also expect the Australian economy to be smaller at the end of next year than it was at the beginning of this year, and it wasn't especially good nick before the virus hit. All of these things are pretty confronting conclusions. Even with the very welcome packages that the Parliament has legislated, JobKeeper and other packages, we're still expecting to see hundreds of thousands of Australians join the unemployment queues and that is a very worrying development.
 
KARVELAS: Okay, so even if we accept what you say, which is that the IMF has taken these things into consideration, do you accept the argument that we have been actually reducing the numbers of COVID-19 and so that is actually a key part of the evidence as you make predictions about how the economy might rebound? Because no doubt it'll be influential in the way we take off restrictions, at least for the domestic economy?
 
CHALMERS: Yes, I'm referring to the JobKeeper announcement, which was announced about a week before the IMF finalised their report. There have been some really welcome developments in terms of new infections from the Coronavirus. We've said all along that they are good outcomes. They are a function of the really good work that Australians have been doing in staying away from each other, in the main. That's a really good thing but we can't be complacent about it. The economic developments will be heavily reliant on how long the restrictions stay in place, not just the domestic restrictions but the international ones as well. The point that we're making about all of this is that there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy. The Government shouldn't just assume that everything will automatically just snap back to normal in six months' time, which seems to be the Prime Minister's assumption, because the IMF and others clearly don't share that assumption.
 
KARVELAS: Okay, so if we accept that you also agree with the IMF that that's not going to happen, what are you suggesting happens to ensure people are protected? Let's talk about the JobKeeper package. Do you think it should be extended beyond six months?
 
CHALMERS: First of all it should be extended to more workers. One of the powers that the Treasurer has from the new legislation is that he, with the stroke of a pen, can include or exclude different categories of workers from the scheme. That means that more than a million casuals, some temporary workers and other workers who are currently excluded are being deliberately excluded from the scheme. That means the unemployment rate will be higher because Josh Frydenberg refuses to exercise those powers. So the first thing he should do is extend the scheme to more workers because that will maintain the connection between those workers and their employers which will make it easier for us to recover at the other end of this crisis.
 
KARVELAS: But with respect, my question was about extending the duration, which, of course, would be would be very expensive to do. Does Labor believe that this six-month period should be extended?
 
CHALMERS: It remains to be seen, Patricia. The point we're making is, let's not just assume that everything will go back to normal in six months' time. It would be good if it did, but it doesn't mean that it necessarily will. First of all, let's protect more workers. Then let's stay flexible on the timing of the withdrawal of this really welcome support for millions of other workers. One of the troubling things is the Prime Minister's language about snap back, because what we see from the IMF’s forecasts and from a lot of the private sector forecasts as well is that we don't yet know how this will play out in the economy. Most people's expectations are that it will take longer for unemployment to go down than it took to go up. The unemployment rate is notorious for rising more quickly than it falls, so the Government needs to be ready to do more should that be necessary.
 
KARVELAS: On a few other issues, Liberal MP Dave Sharma says Australia and the other countries that fund the World Health Organisation should make significant demands for reforms in the way it operates after what we've seen in this COVID-19 crisis. Is that a position you think should be pursued?
 
CHALMERS: Being part of an international organisation means that you have the right and the responsibility to speak up when you think that they can operate more effectively. That's true of all of our memberships of various multilateral organisations. We think it's really important that we work with the World Health Organisation at the moment to make sure that we can play our part in the global effort to get on top of the virus.
 
KARVELAS: I just want to talk to you about something that's been a big story in Victoria today; of course, all states are dealing with this at different levels. The Queensland Teachers Union boss, Kevin Bates, has told the Prime Minister to butt out of this debate over whether children should go back to school after Scott Morrison, the Prime Minister, said the education of the nation's children was hanging in the balance. Should he butt out?
 
CHALMERS: He should stop sending mixed messages to parents who are already stressed enough. I know from personal experience, I assume you do as well, that it's very tough on parents at the moment trying to do their jobs, if they can, from home at the same time as they are trying to home-school their kids. It's very stressful time. The mixed messages from the Prime Minister are making things more stressful rather than less stressful.
 
KARVELAS: I just want to get you on exactly what you mean by mixed messages. What's the mixed message?
 
CHALMERS: First of all he said that it was entirely a matter for the states. Then he releases a video where he's telling kids to go back to school. It's not clear what he means by the kids of essential workers. One day he's saying that means every worker, another day he's got a more limited idea of essential workers. All of the feedback that I've been receiving as a local member, and I'm assume that's the same as my colleagues, is that parents are really stressed right now. They don't know how to square what the Prime Minister says with what some of the state Premiers are saying. That's making people more stressed. We need an end to the mixed messages and we need to make sure that people know what the next few weeks look like when it comes to home-schooling.
 
KARVELAS: I know you're a Queensland MP, but you are the Shadow Treasurer. In Victoria, for instance, it's not so easy to send your child to school. The requirements are pretty strict. I've even received - as you say, I am a parent too - an email saying that the actual contingencies for the children who can go to school are pretty strict. If you're working from home, that is not a good enough reason. Do you think that's fair, particularly for disadvantaged children?
 
CHALMERS: The rules are for the state Governments to determine - 
 
KARVELAS: Sure, but surely you have a view in terms of equity? I mean, I know everyone's stuck in this moment, and I think that's fair enough, but I always like to look at the long-term and I know you do too. Is this going to lead to more inequity in this country when all of these students eventually return?
 
CHALMERS: We are worried about vulnerable kids, disadvantaged kids, or kids who are especially reliant on the school system to give some structure and some order to their to their daily lives, obviously. This is a very disruptive period for all kids, but it falls disproportionately on some kids and so we need to do what we can to be as inclusive as we can. So long as those rules, whether in Victoria or Queensland or elsewhere in Australia, are clearly communicated and people know what they're dealing with, that will help take some of the angst out of this period. The problem is where people think they know what the situation looks like and then the Prime Minister comes over the top with a different message from one day to the next. That makes people really stressed, really uncertain and I think things are stressful enough and uncertain enough as they are.
 
KARVELAS: The Morrison Government has announced today it's going to provide some short-term financial relief to the media industry, including $41 million in spectrum tax rebates. Also $50 million for regional journalism which we know is struggling immensely. 
 
CHALMERS: Yes. 
 
KARVELAS: Do you think this is a good package?
 
CHALMERS: I'll have a good look at it and I'll talk with Michelle Rowland and others about it. As you just alluded to there are parts of the media landscape in Australia which have been doing it extraordinarily tough not just because of the Coronavirus and the falling advertising revenue, but for some time. The Government's been in office for seven years now. They haven't managed to get the settings right for media diversity in this country. If there's a package of short-term support to help people get through then obviously we'll look at that with a welcoming eye, but there are broader issues in media which have been largely left unattended.
 
KARVELAS: Scott Morrison has thrown out a suggestion that politicians and public servants should take a pay cut to help the country's finances during the Coronavirus pandemic. In New Zealand, though, they have cut politicians pay by 20 per cent. Should we also take a pay cut?
 
CHALMERS: As I understand it there's a pay freeze for federal employees. I'm not sure if there's proposal to go further than that. Obviously that's not the main thing that I spend my day thinking about. Others are responsible for the pay of parliamentary representatives and for the public service. Obviously I'll go along with whatever is decided.
 
KARVELAS: Okay. Before I let you go, Jim Chalmers, you alluded to your dual role at the moment. You're doing a bit of home-schooling yourself at the moment?
 
CHALMERS: I'm doing a bit of it. Laura's obviously doing a bit of it as well. We've been doing some sight words today. We've been learning about coins on other days. I don't think I'm an especially good home teacher and I think for a lot of us, it gives us even more admiration for the kids' regular teachers.
 
KARVELAS: Yes, it certainly does. Hats off to them. Oh, Lordy. As I described it to a colleague today, 'a bin fire' - that's what me being a teacher is. Thank you so much, Jim Chalmers. 
 
CHALMERS: Thank you, Patricia. 
 
KARVELAS: That's Labor's Treasury spokesman, Jim Chalmers.
 
ENDS