JIM CHALMERS MP
SHADOW TREASURER
MEMBER FOR RANKIN
E&OE TRANSCRIPT
RADIO INTERVIEW
RN DRIVE
THURSDAY, 16 DECEMBER 2021
SUBJECTS: MYEFO; Secret rorts before the election and secret cuts to the Budget after the election; The Morrison Government silent on costs of living but doubling-down on rorts and waste; Booster vaccines.
PAUL BARCLAY, HOST: Jim Chalmers is the Shadow Treasurer. Welcome back to RN Drive.
JIM CHALMERS, SHADOW TREASURER: Thanks for the opportunity, Paul.
BARCLAY: A $7 billion improvement to the projected deficit - not insignificant - to what degree can that be attributed to the lockdowns lifting?
CHALMERS: I think that's a big part of the story. I think most economists expect and welcome that the economy will rebound after that horrific September quarter, where the economy was bleeding billions of dollars a week because of the mistakes the federal government made on vaccines and quarantine, which led to the lockdowns. There will inevitably be a bit of a Budget improvement in the near term. The other thing about the deficits, is the deficits in the third and fourth year of the Budget actually get bigger, and over the medium term. There's still a trillion dollars of debt in the Budget with not enough to show for it. And that's because, as you said in your introduction, we've got this $16 billion secret slush fund, which shows that they've learned nothing about all the rorts, and waste, and rip-offs, which have been uncovered not just in the last couple of years but the couple of last couple of days in particular. What that means is Australians can expect secret rorts before the election and secret cuts to the Budget after the election. When they were hoping to hear something from the Government about the skyrocketing costs of living, instead we just get more of the same rorts and waste.
BARCLAY: The Government says it will gain an extra $109 billion over the next four years. That's a significant amount of money. What do we know about where this comes from?
CHALMERS: Well, a lot of that is tax revenue, of course, as the economy recovers. This Government is already the second highest taxing government in the last thirty years, the highest was the Howard Government. So a lot of that is taxes. As the economy recovers, people pay more tax and businesses make a bigger contribution. So that's a big part of the story. But that 100+ billion dollars doesn't all go to fixing the Budget or paying down debt. A lot of it, as I said, is still being sprayed around for political purposes. I think a lot of people will be concerned when they see the story today about the Budget update. First of all, nothing about cost of living, or stagnant wages, or skill shortages, or any of those defining economic challenges. Also, if the economy is recovering so strongly, and the Budget is recovering so strongly, why do we still have a trillion dollars in debt and not enough to show for it?
BARCLAY: It doesn't seem that long ago the Treasury was warning that unemployment could hit something around 15%. Now, the unemployment rate's expected to fall to 4.5% - remarkable low number. The Treasurer says this is proof of the Government's commitment to creating jobs. Is it a fair statement by the by the Treasurer?
CHALMERS: We want the unemployment rate to be as low as possible but I think what the Treasurer doesn't understand - but people in the community do - is that the unemployment rate's only part of the story when it comes to the labour market, the jobs market. There's also underemployment, there's stagnant wages, there's insecure work, all of these other issues which are important too. Even in those numbers today, which many people have welcomed, we still have 1.7 million Australians who are either looking for a job or looking for more hours at the same time as we've got these skill shortages. So there's still some concerning aspects of the labour market. We want the unemployment rate to continue to edge south - that would be a good thing - but we can't ignore these other issues, particularly, I think, the interaction between insecure work and stagnant wages, which mean that people can't keep up with the skyrocketing costs of living.
BARCLAY: Cost of living is slated to outstrip wage growth in the coming months. You've criticised the Government's economic management, arguing cost of living pressures have reached new heights. What's your alternative?
CHALMERS: First of all, you're right, real wages do go backwards in the Budget update. What we've said about that is that the big issue there is whether wages keep up with those costs of living. That's why we've got plans and policies around growing the economy in a way that feeds through to wages, but also making sure that via Fair Work Australia we can turn casual insecure jobs into more secure jobs and that will flow through to wages. We want to deal with issues like labor hire, which is undercutting wages in so many parts of our economy. We've got a number of positive suggestions out there. We recognise that after a decade or so of stagnant wages under this Government, one of our top priorities needs to be to get wages going again. You only do that by dealing with the cancer of insecure work in the labour market. That's been ignored, if not exacerbated, under this Government during the time that they've been in office. So we need to try and turn that around.
BARCLAY: Borders have reopened to international students and skilled workers, about six months ahead of what was forecast in the May Budget. How important a role will this play in the recovery?
CHALMERS: It looks like it's crucial to the assumptions that the Government's making in their Budget. The Budget update today assumes that the Government will get everything absolutely bang-on right in terms of managing the pandemic over the next 6 to 12 months. Their form over the last 12 to 24 months would suggest that that's a pretty heroic assumption, but let's see. We hope we can stay on top of this omicron variant, we hope we can successfully manage the virus and all the strains that come at us. The Budget update assumes that that's perfectly managed. We hope that's the case, but it remains to be seen.
BARCLAY: Yes, but in fairness, these are hard times in which to make assumptions. Assumptions about COVID lockdowns no longer being required, for example. What are you thinking about that? Is it safe to bet on lockdowns not being required in the future, given the uncertainty at the moment of the omicron strain?
CHALMERS: Obviously, we acknowledge that there's lots of uncertainty and that the Government's advisors do their best when they make these forecasts, but I think if you look at recent history, no objective observer would say that the Morrison Government's got all these pandemic-related issues right - vaccines, quarantine, economic support. So to assume that all of a sudden they're going to get it perfectly right, I think, is a little bit of a stretch, but we hope that those assumptions play out and we stay on top of the virus.
BARCLAY: And just finally, the Prime Minister has today rejected suggestions, the bringing forward of booster eligibility has created problems for supply. There are concerns in New South Wales that not enough eligible people are getting their boosters. How confident are you that Australia does have adequate supplies to get those booster shots into the arms that they need to go into?
CHALMERS: I'm worried about it, Paul. I'm worried about it being different in different parts of the country. To be honest with you, I'm worried that the Prime Minister is not coming clean with us about the situation. There's a lot of people in the system who are predicting that we might be up for a repeat of the debacle that was the original rollout by this Government of the original vaccines. We don't want to see that happen, and I am personally worried that the Prime Minister is not telling us the full story about preparations here. It's crucial we get boosters into arms. I had mine yesterday. It's crucial that as soon as people become eligible they get it, but in order for that to happen, the Prime Minister, for once, has to get this rollout right. Otherwise, people will suffer and the economy will suffer too.
BARCLAY: Jim Chalmers, thank you very much for your time.
CHALMERS: Thanks for having me on your show, Paul.
ENDS
